Windy, a global weather forecast service, is offering animated visualisation of the predicted path of Cyclone Nisarga that is approaching Mumbai shores. According to the service, the cyclone is expected to make landfall on June 3, and it shows the entire trajectory of the cyclone for the days to come. The service has a neat slider tool that allows users to see where the cyclone will be at a specified time. The cyclone is expected to pass through Mumbai, north Maharashtra, and Gujarat coasts.
Windy.com has issued a warning on its site claiming that ‘Cyclone Nisarga is heading towards west coast of Mumbai’. The site explains in a post, “A deep depression has intensified into a cyclonic storm in the Arabian Sea and is predicted to become a severe cyclonic storm named Nisarga in the next several hours. Storm has been moving at 11 km/h (5 KT) northwards in the past 6 hours. The current maximum sustained wind speeds are 70 km/h (37 KT) and gusts 90 km/h (48 KT) with a position LAT 16.0/LON 71.5. The storm could possibly bring devastating winds of 110 km/h (59 KT) and gusting to 120 km/h (64 KT).”
The site offers a real-time trajectory of the cyclone, based on collated data from third-party providers like European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Global Forecast System (GFS) models. On its community page, a Windy.com moderator notes, “Windy does not create any forecast data but instead only visualises forecast and actual data received from various third party providers. So the question of accuracy is not for Windy but for the data providers. ” Therefore, while Windy.com may offer a neat visual representation of the storm, it isn’t to be taken as the definitive source for predicting the path of the storm or its speed.
There are a lot of variables that decide the path of the cyclone, and Windy.com may not necessarily take into account all of them. However, ECMFW weather model is extremely popular and is considered to be fairly accurate. We recommend users residing in Mumbai, north Maharashtra, and Gujarat coasts to stay safe and indoors. Some other safety measures include parking cars away from trees, fully charging laptops, smartphones and power banks in the event of a power cut, and keeping some cash handy (not relying on cards).